TRAITORS: The real traitors are not Rahul Gandhi and Vijai Sardessai but Luizinho Faleiro and Digvijay Singh who would not let Digambar Kamat stake his claim to the chief minister’s post in 2017 with the support of Vijai Sardessai.

Goa welcomes political tourists like the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Admi Party but will not offer them the status of even bhoomiputra, let alone allow them to take over the state. The ongoing electoral battle will be primarily between the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

By Rajan Narayan

ON his first visit to Goa following the first ever election after Liberation in 1961, the first prime minister of the country, Jawaharlal Nehru, commented that “Goa ke lok ajeeb hai!” This was in the context of the fact that the Indian National Congress (INC) party which had taken great pride in liberating Goa from Portuguese colonial rule did not get a single seat in the first ever general elections held in Goa in 1963. The only seat that the Congress party got was from the Union Territory of Daman which was administratively part of Goa.
We seem to be back to square one with the strength of the Congress party being reduced to three from the 17 seats they won in the 2017 assembly elections. Vishwajit Rane, son of Pratapsingh Rane, the veteran Congressman, quit the party and contested and won on the BJP ticket. Earlier, Mauvin Godinho, the MLA from Dabolim, resigned from Congress and got himself elected as a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA.
Then, of course, there was mass exodus after the sad demise of the late Manohar Parrikar soon after his return to Goa as chief minister again. Babush Monserrate led a group of ten Congressmen MLAs to defect to the BJP. The latest Congressman to quit the party and join the BJP is former chief minister Ravi Naik. Ravi Naik’s sons have already joined the BJP. So much so the strength of the Congress in the Legislative Assembly of Goa came down to just three, namely former chief minister Digambar Kamat, veteran four times chief minister Pratapsingh Rane and Reginald Lourenco.
In the last few days, the Trinamool Congress has been carrying advertisements just below the masthead of all the dailies in Goa stating “The two real culprits of great betrayal of 2017are back together again.” In the Facebook pages, the IPAC has put the faces of Vijai Sardessai and Rahul Gandhi as the great betrayers. Everyone knows who betrayed whom. And certainly Rahul Gandhi was not involved in any manner. The great betrayer is not either Vijai Sardessai or Rahul Gandhi but Luizinho Faleiro whom the TMC has embraced.

REPEAT HISTORY?
I can speak from personal experience that it was because Luizinho was not acceptable to Vijai Sardessai as the Chief Minister that he switched to the BJP. Luizinho on his part was adamant that no other candidate would be acceptable as Chief Minister except himself. History was about to repeat itself with Vijai Sardessai being induced to join the TMC with the offer of Chief Ministership.
The announcement was supposed to be made on Mamta Banerjee’s first visit to Goa after Luizinho Faleiro joined the party. The TMC is very sore because it was not the Congress that Vijai betrayed but the TMC. Vijai was persuaded to change his mind by Rahul Gandhi and has now formed the pre- poll alliance with the Congress. The TMC is still searching for the Chief Ministerial candidate as none of the ‘divisive or the decayed’ have been willing to join the TMC except the most decayed of them all, Luizinho Faleiro. The TMC has been taking great pride in distributing its charge sheets against the BJP government. Unfortunately, it has not realised that Goan voters want goodies from the parties and candidates and not charge sheets. They know already about the sins of omission and commission of the BJP.
The Aam Admi Party (AAP) is identified in Delhi primarily as the party of the poor, party of the slum dwellers and weaker sections of the society which is why Arvind Kejriwal has had to offer freebies to retain their loyalty. Ranging from free power to free water to improved schools and health centres. We are not trying to underplay the AAP achievements in Delhi. But primarily Arvind Kejriwal has been playing the Robinhood game. Rob the rich to get the votes of the poor.
Unfortunately for AAP the BJP in Goa under the late Manohar Parrikar has already tapped the freebies market. It may be recalled that Manohar Parrikar introduced the Laadli Laxmi scheme whereby every female child would get Rs one lakh when she gets married. Manohar Parrikar also introduced the Gruha Adhaar scheme under which all housewives were given an allowance of Rs one thousand five hundred per month as inflationary allowance.

BJP FREEBIES
Parrikar had also introduced the Deen Dayal Swasthya Seva Joyana (DDSYJ) scheme which provided for medical insurance to all Goans. The amount depended upon the size of the family. All Arvind Kejriwal could do was to offer an additional Rs one thousand to those who are already getting Rs one thousand five hundred under the Gruha Adhaar scheme. Unfortunately for Arvind Kejriwal, most of the supporters of AAP in Goa are from the middle class. They don’t need freebies from him. AAP has not been able to target the traditional vote banks – the migrants and the slum dwellers – who are its primary vote bank in New Delhi.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a major dilemma. Out of the 27 MLAs who support the party in the assembly, the Damocles sword of disqualification hangs over twelve of them. This includes the 10 Congress MLAs who joined the BJP when Pramod Sawant became the chief minister and the two MGP MLAs who claimed to have merged with the BJP. The only thing that the BJP has to cheer about is the fact that the Goa Forward Party MLA Jayesh Salgaonkar has joined them. Ravi Naik, the former chief minister is also expected to join them. As against this, there is every possibility that Michael Lobo might quit the BJP and join whichever party is willing to give him and his wife a ticket. It is the dynasty issue which is the biggest burden of the BJP. Babush is demanding tickets not only for himself from Panjim but for his wife from Taleigao and son Rohit from Santa Cruz. There is a split in the BJP over conceding Babush’s demands.

REVOLT IN BJP
The defacto chief minister Satish Dhond is in favour as the BJP has very little bench strength and is relying on Babush to deliver the five Tiswadi seats. It would also appear that the RSS is not in favour of continuing the late Manohar Parrikar’s successful experiment of giving tickets to Catholic candidates. Equally if not the church, the parish priests are actively canvassing against Catholic candidates seeking to contest on BJP tickets.
Ironically, the fortunes of the BJP will depend upon whether they are able to delay the verdict on disqualification as if it goes against the 10 Congress MLAs they will not be able to contest for the next six years. Even if they get a stay from the Supreme Court there will always be suspense over the stability of the new BJP government if they get a majority. It is also clear that there is lots of dissent within the BJP as dramatised by the revolt by the karyakarta against the admission of Jayesh Salgaonkar. Subhash Velingkar whose RSS cadres used to control the booths may also not be available this time around.
This is the second time the AAP is contesting the polls in Goa. It will probably be a repeat performance with the AAP not being able to open its innings. The TMC might be able to increase its vote share to more than six per cent necessary to be recognised as a national party. But it is suffering from delusions if it thinks it will be able to form the government in Goa. So the principle fight will still be between the BJP and the Congress and their allies. The Congress seems to have resurrected itself following the pre-poll alliance with the Goa Forward Party (GFP). It is also likely that many of those who do not get tickets from other parties will join them. Both the TMC and AAP have been promising tickets to many people. This is likely to have a backlash on them. Those who join political parties do so with the expectation that they will get to share in the power and the loot. By recruiting aspirants in their hundreds, the TMC is only adding to the burden of expectations. As far as the AAP is concerned, the fact that Elvis Gomes their former convenor joined the Congress shows the loss of credibility. Kejriwal with his offers of pilgrimages to Ayodha is widely being seen as the ‘B’ team of BJP.
There are too many parties and too many aspiring candidates. There are no winnable candidates as the parties will be cutting into each other’s votes. As of now, we do not even know who the candidates are. Once the candidates are announced, we will witness a major churn with those who do not get tickets going shopping to other parties. In politics, there is nothing like loyalty. It is all about which party will give whom a ticket and in addition, if enough cash to buy their vote banks. Goans have always been unpredictable. But it is unlikely that we will see a repeat of AAP’s performance in Delhi where they got 67 out of 70 seats in their New Delhi Legislative Assembly. Or the TMC’s performance which got two-thirds majority in the West Bengal elections. Goans may welcome tourists but will not make them Bhumiputras.