By Rajan Narayan
PRIME Minister Narendra Modi seems to understand that he cannot hope to win the 2024 parliamentary election on the Ram Mandir alone. This is why all the media advertising is focused on “Modi-Ki- Guarantee.” There is a young girl who talks about her mother. Her mother’s contribution to building her character. Her mother’s role is to provide good nutritional meals for her children. The contribution of the mother to the child’s education. The little girl asks a question who makes my mother strong? She answers her question. It is Narendra Modi, the prime minister who makes her mother strong.
By providing free gas cylinders. By providing the house for the family. For protecting women against price hikes through the Graha Adhar scheme. By helping the girl child through the Laldli Laxmi scheme. It is Modi’s guarantee which makes mother such a strong person. Modi’s guarantee extends to a variety of areas and not just women. A farmer declares that it is Modi who has made the farming community strong. It is Modi who has created economic and social security for farming. It is Modi who has made available fertilizers and pesticides. Never mind that Modi has not supported the striking farmers who are just outside Delhi. The farmers want a guaranteed minimum support price.
The problem with the Indian farmer is that both in good times and bad times there are crises in his life. If there is too much production of rice, wheat sugar or onions, the prices in the wholesale market crash. If there is too little output the farmer is not able to raise enough revenue for his requirements including investment for the next crop. Unlike in the west, the Indian farmers have no logistic facilities. He is not able to steal his production. With the result that the farmer is at the mercy of the middleman. Modi is not willing to offer any guarantees to the agitating farmers from Punjab and other parts of the country. Instead, the Haryana government is firing tear gas and bullets at the farmers.
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THE advertisements show a picture of a farmer who has set up his own carpentry workshop. The carpenter says he has benefited from the BJP scheme for craftsmen. It is a help from the Modi government that is enabled him to set up a carpentry workshop. What is the guarantee that he will be able to pay back alone? Then again you have the reframeD Modiji-ki-guarantee. Another ad shows a young man with a motorbike. The young man tells the older farmer that Modi has lifted crores of people from the poverty line. What is the guarantee that you will be able to pay back the loan? The young man of course says Modiji-ki-guarantee. The older farmer who only has a cycle comments that Modi’s guarantee makes sure that the young man will be able to repay his loan.
In every sphere of human activity, Modi has been offering a personal guarantee. Whether it is a farmer housewife or craftsman they all benefit from Modi-ki-guarantee. There is no talk of Ram Mandir in the BJP’s high-profile advertisement campaign. There is no questioning Modi-Ki-Guarantee. Every citizen of India has the assurance of Modi’s Guarantee. There is no doubt of the help of Narendra Modi to every section of Indian society.
The BJP is going into the 2024 election riding on the guarantee of Modi. Significantly, no other political leader is offering any guarantee on behalf of the BJP. Indeed, chairing the longest six-hour cabinet meeting before announcing the first list of names for the Lok Sabha elections, Modi asked his colleagues not to talk too much and in any case, the BJP is only projecting Narendra Modi.
The other senior leaders like Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari are all marginalized. While Modi is contesting from Varanasi again Amit Shah is contesting the Gandhinagar seat in Gujarat. Rajnath Singh, the defense minister is contesting from Lucknow. Nitin Ghadkari the transport minister will again contest from Nagpur.
Smriti Irani who defeated Rahul Gandhi last time is again contesting from Amethi. It will appear that Rahul Gandhi will contest one of the safe seats from Telangana. The left parties have told him to vacate the Wayanad seat in Kerala. The left leaders pointed out that Congress should not fight the left. The left has nominated as a senior leader from Wayanad. Sonia Gandhi is not contesting the Lok Sabha election. She has got herself elected from the Rajya Sabha. There is speculation that Priyanka Vadra (nee Gandhi) may contest from Sonia’s old seat Rae Bareli
The BJP is playing safe and has nominated most of the successful candidates in the last election. An outstanding example is the selection of the five-time member of parliament Shripad Naik. The BJP Telecom Minister Rajeev Chandrashekar will take on the Congress candidate from Trivandrum. It is clear that Modi’s favorites will get the ticket. The BJP expects to win more than 400 seats this time.
NO GUARANTEE
THERE is of course no guarantee that Modi and the BJP will cross the magical 400 figure. Parliament has around 530 seats. The BJP is targeting all 80 seats in UP. Modi is also looking at the majority of parliament seats at Bihar. Nitish Kumar, former chief minister of Bihar, has returned to the BJP. Modi is also looking at West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, Modi has split both the Shiv Sena and the NCP. Sharad Pawar has been denied the clock symbol which has gone to his nephew.
Similarly, Uddhav Thackeray has lost the Shiva Sena symbol. The lotus seems to be blooming in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. It may be recalled that in the last round of the assembly election, the NCP and the Shiv Sena were hired together. There is no NCP presence in Maharashtra. It would appear that the INDIA group has broken up after Nitish Kumar joined the BJP; Mamata Banerjee has refused to align with Congress.
The Congress lost their election in Madhya Pradesh, Chandigarh and Rajasthan. The Congress has been wiped out in the northern Hindi belt. The only state where it has some presence is Himachal Pradesh. Modi has focused on the OBC and women voters in the first list of the BJP. It would look as though the OBC has shifted to BJP. Women account for 50% of the election. In the first list, the BJP has given them 20% of the seats.
It is clear that the BJP is at the top of the first list. Admittedly there is a lot of opposition to the BJP but India is not united to take on the BJP challenge. The people have Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guarantee that the next government will also be headed by Modi. This will be the third term of Narendra Modi as the prime minister of the country.