By Rajan Narayan

AND a few stray thoughts for yet another Saturday. For a Saturday following the week when the people of India rejected the “nafrat ka dukaan” and voted for “pyar mohabbat” between all communities. And a few stray thoughts on Narendra Modi declaring that he was willing to form the government for the third term following the NDA gets a simple majority in parliament. For a Saturday following the week on the decline of Swami Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh. For a Saturday following the week when Rahul Gandhi became the “man of the match” in the 2024 election. For a Saturday following the week when the monsoon advances into Goa, but the official announcement was delayed until June 7-8.
AND a few stray thoughts on when the people of India rejected the “nafrat ka dukaan” and voted for “pyar mohabbat” between all communities. Narendra Modi could not guarantee the victory of the BJP even in Ram Lalla’s Ayodhya. Not just in Ayodhya but in all the five constituencies in Faziabad, which includes Ayodhya, it is the Samajwadi Party which defeated the BJP.
Modi himself was re-elected by a much lower margin of 1.5 lakh voters against the margin of 4.8 lakh votes in the 2019 election. Indeed, the votes polled by Captain Satish Gupta in Amethi were more than those secured by Narendra Modi in Varanasi. The Congress managed to win six seats in Uttar Pradesh including Raebareli which was represented by Sonia Gandhi. The Samajwadi party made a clean sweep getting 37 seats and to emerge as the biggest alliance partner in India, next only to the Congress. It is clear that not only the Muslim communities but the Schedule Tribe (ST), Schedule Caste (SC) and the Other Backward Classes (OBC) have also rejected the BJP.
The 2024 parliamentary election is a victory for the secular forces in the country. It is the message going out to Narendra Modi that the politics of hate are not acceptable to Indian voters.

MODI FOR THIRD TERM
AND a few stray thoughts on Narendra Modi declaring that he was willing to form the government for the third term following the NDA getting a simple majority in parliament. Except that this time it will be a coalition government with N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar calling the shots. It is not the BJP which won in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar but N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. In AP the Telugu Desam (country) got 18 parliamentary seats.
The BJP did not get a single seat. Similarly, in Bihar, the JDU led from the front winning 12 seats. While Chirag Paswan won five seats. In 2019 NDA won 39 of the 40 seats. The only state in which the saffron brigade has made significant advance is Odisha where it has won 20 seats. Even in Haryana, the BJP could get only five seats.
Significantly, in the north-eastern states like Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram, the Congress has got the majority of the seats. So much so if the BJP has won the battle it has also lost the war. Modi may or may not be willing to accept that the BJP will be running a minority-backed government and is currently at the mercy of N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar.

DOUBLE ENGINE POLITICS
AND a few stray thoughts on the decline of Swami Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh. The double-engine government has not worked in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP suffered the worst results in the just over parliamentary election. In the last parliamentary election, Adityanath managed to get all 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh. This time around however BJP could not get even half the number.
It is Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi party who has taught Yogi a lesson. The combination of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi has won 43 of the 80 seats. On the eve of the election, there were strong rumours that Yogi Adityanath had fallen foul of Narendra Modi. The RSS had been proposing to substitute Narendra Modi with Yogi Adityanath. It is very likely that Adityanath will be forced to quit as the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.

RAHUL GANDHI WINS
AND a few stray thoughts on Rahul Gandhi becoming the “man of the match” in the 2024 election. Rahul has not only succeeded in increasing the tally of the Congress from 40 to 90 seats but has led the INDI Alliance in winning 234 seats. Rahul Gandhi personally won the Raebareli seat by 3.9 lakh and the Wayanad seat by 3.6 lakh. At the June 4 press conference Rahul declared that the people of India have saved the Constitution and democracy in India. He called upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi to do the right thing and resign. Rahul pointed out that the BJP got only 240 seats which was 34 seats short of a clear majority. Modi could still be kept out if N Chandrababu and Nitish Kumar decide to switch to the INDI Alliance.

STOCK MARKET REJECTS
AND a few stray thoughts on the stock market collapsing following the rejection of Narendra Modi in the latest polls. The stock market lost over 4,000 points which is the biggest loss since 2019. The stock market had gone up by 86% in 2019 when Modi got a huge majority. The widely held belief that Modi had supported Gautam Adani was dramatized by the stock market on Tuesday, June 4, 2024. The market cap of the Adani Group fell by Rs3.6 lakh crore. The prices of all 11 of the Adani companies’ stocks fell by over 25% on Tuesday. The flagship company Adani Enterprises also dropped by 19%.
Recently, Adani had claimed that he had overtaken Mukesh Ambani as the richest billionaire. Simultaneously, the value of the rupee also dropped by 42 paisa against the dollar. Clearly, the stock market feels that the third term for Modi would be a disaster for the economy and the country.

MONSOON ADVANCES
AND a few stray thoughts on the monsoon advancing into Goa but the official announcement delayed it until June 7-8. The much-awaited southwest monsoon had advanced into Goa, according to an announcement made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday, June 4. However, the official declaration of the monsoon’s onset over the state is expected to be made in the next three to four days between June 7 and 8, a slight delay from the typical onset date of June 5.
The IMD follows specific criteria to declare the monsoon onset, requiring at least 60% of weather stations in a region to record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, along with favourable wind and radiation conditions. “Southwest monsoon advanced into some parts of central Arabian Sea, southern part Goa, more parts of Karnataka & Telangana, remaining parts of Rayalaseema, on June 4.” The IMD stated that in the coming days, we may announce the onset of monsoon in Goa.
The slight delay in the monsoon’s official arrival over Goa is not attributed to any specific weather systems like cyclonic circulation. However, the presence of a cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and another over the west-central Bay of Bengal off south Coastal Andhra Pradesh-north Tamil Nadu is likely to bring isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph to Marathwada over the next five days, and to Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra till June 6.
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph over the Konkan, including Goa and Madhya Maharashtra from June 7 to 10. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Konkan and Goa from June 6 to 10.
According to IMD’s extended range forecast, rainfall is expected to be largely deficient until June 6 and deficient between June 7 and 13. Temperatures have been nearly two degrees above normal for the past three days until June 4, with maximum temperatures ranging from 34.7°Celsuis to 35.6°C and a minimum of 28.7°C. However, the next three days are likely to be less warm, with temperatures remaining within the normal range of 34°C for the maximum and 26°C for the minimum.
Between June 1 and 4, Goa recorded 13.7 mm of rainfall, 69.1% below the normal of 44.5 mm. South Goa received 19.6 mm of rainfall, while North Goa recorded 7.2 mm. Last year, the monsoon arrived in Goa on June 12 after a delay of four days, as compared to its normal onset date.