By Rajan Narayan

THE rate of growth of the population in Goa has shown a steady decline over the last decade. The total fertility rate in Goa is as low as 1.3%, which is among the lowest in the country. The fertility rate is the number of children per woman. The minimum replacement is to maintain the population at 2%. The logic is to maintain the current population in Goa, every couple should have at least two children to replace themselves.
The birth rate in Goa showed a decline from 10.87 per thousand population in 2022 to 10.73 per thousand population in 2023. It is reported to have declined further to less than ten per thousand population in 2024. The projected population of the state for 2025 is expected to be approximately 15.96 lakh. If the population had grown at the minimum reproduction rate of 2%, the population would have been closer to 20 lakh. The decline in the fertility rate at the birth rate has been compounded by a decline in the number of migrants coming to Goa. Unlike in the other states, where the population growth over the last decade has been more than 20%, Goa’s population increased by less than two lakhs between 2011 and 2023. The economic survey presented along with the budget shows a declining trend in population growth between 2019 and 2023. The population, which was 14.58 lakhs in 2011 has only grown to 15.96 lakhs in 2025.
The declining population has, unfortunately, coincided with an increase in the mortality rate. This, in simple language, means the number of Goans dying has shown a sharp increase. The death rate in the state works out to 9.4 per thousand, which is only slightly less than the birth rate. There are fears that, at the present rate, more people may die in Goa than babies born in Goa. The most disturbing fact is that 47% of the deaths in Goa are due not to old age but due to heart attacks and cancers.

IN 2023
IN 2023 alone, a total of 4,589 deaths due to heart attacks were reported. The number of women getting heart attacks is almost equal to that of men getting heart attacks. The next biggest killer among men in Goa is cirrhosis of the liver. This is a direct consequence of the heavy consumption of alcohol. Both Goans and migrants tend to drink too much because the price of daru is half that in neighbouring Karnataka and Maharashtra.
Indeed, the major tourism attraction of Goa for domestic tourists is the easy and cheap availability of alcohol.
A total of 1,060 cases of fatal liver diseases have been reported in 2023. But the second biggest killer disease is diabetes. It is been revealed that as many as 1,500 Goans died of diabetes-related ailments in 2025. Diabetes killed 826 men and 688 women. There are also a large number of cases of diabetes patients losing the use of their legs due to amputations.

TB STILL AROUND
AND contrary to the claim that the government has eliminated TB, there are 193 deaths due to TB in Goa. Strokes accounted for 920 deaths, 518 among men and 402 among women. Other causes of death are pneumonia and malaria. There have also been reports of the very high rate of deaths due to unnatural causes such as drowning, snake bites, and a growing number of deaths due to dog bites. Road accidents also claimed a large number of victims.
THE good news is that infant mortality in Goa is much lower than in other states in the country. Goa has the best infrastructure for safe deliveries in the country. Goa even has facilities for in vitro fertilization, including a free facility at the new Goa Medical College Hospital. The brightest part of Goa’s population figures is that over 50% of the state’s population is between the ages of 15 and 44 years. This poses challenges in creating employment opportunities for all of them who are graduates.
The immediate challenge is the 50,000 plus students who have completed their 10th and 12th standards and have entered the job market. Less than 20% of those who passed the 12TH standard qualified for higher studies. There is an urgent need for training young people and skilling them so that they have a better chance finding jobs in Goa.